Tuesday, February 9, 2010

Another Storm

Well, it is winter, and it is February, and there is another storm brewing. Looks like a good snowstorm Tomorrow, with near Blizzard conditions of heavy snow, high winds and poor visibility. A foot of snow not out of the question at this time, forecast will be refined as the afternoon progresses, but if you need to make preparations this is a good time. Below is an excerpt from Weather Service discussions:
MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS REVOLVE AROUND SNOW AND WIND POTENTIAL FROM
POTENT COASTAL STORM WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

1130 AM UPDATE...

WE WILL BE EXPANDING WINTER STORM WATCHES NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE
ENTIRE COUNTY WARNING AREA WHICH INCLUDES SOUTHWEST NH. THE 12Z
NAM/GFS AND UKMET HAVE CONVERGED ON A SIMILAR SOLUTION WITH SURFACE
LOW TRACKING VERY CLOSE TO THE 40N/70W BENCHMARK. VERY HEAVY SNOWFALL
IS LIKELY FOR THE BOSTON-PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR AND POSSIBLY WESTWARD
INTO CT. SOME MIXING IS LIKELY FOR THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. WE WILL HAVE
MORE DETAILS BY MID AFTERNOON. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOW BELOW.

STRONG CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL RACE TOWARD THE EAST COAST AND
ENTER THE ATLANTIC AROUND THE DELMARVA ON WEDNESDAY. THE WILL AID IN
INDUCING RAPID CYCLOGENESIS WELL TO THE SOUTH OF LONG ISLAND WHICH
WILL RESULT IN A MODERATE SNOWSTORM FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
TO THE SOUTH OF THE MASS PIKE. OVERALL...FORECAST RATIONALE HAS NOT
CHANGED MUCH FROM PREVIOUS DAY SHIFT...SO THEREFORE THE FORECAST
HASN/T CHANGED MUCH. THE POSITIONING OF THE MID LEVEL LOW AND IT/S
ASSOCIATED FORCING MECHANISMS WILL DETERMINE HOW FAR NORTH HEAVY
SNOWFALL GETS. THIS IS STILL IN QUESTION AS THERE REMAIN DIFFERING
MODEL SOLUTIONS. OVERALL...WE LIKED A GFS/SREF/GFS ENSEMBLE BLEND THE
BEST.

No comments:

Post a Comment